The recent White House designation of Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist group is the latest extension of the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d policy toward Iran. Yet this policy, aimed at containing Iran\u2019s regional role and limiting its advanced missile program, has backfired, strengthening the status of the IRGC in Iranian domestic politics and further legitimizing its regional and missile activities in the view of many Iranians.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The result is the opposite of the Trump administration\u2019s announced goal in withdrawing in May 2018 from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to reach a \u201cbetter\u201d nuclear deal. Re-imposed draconian sanctions were meant to challenge the value of the country\u2019s regional policy in domestic politics, weaken Iran\u2019s deterrence strength and push Tehran to accept political and security trends favored by President Donald Trump and his regional allies\u2014Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The sanctions are designed to weaken Iran\u2019s economy, exacerbating domestic splits and promoting fragility in Iran\u2019s political system. While sanctions have sharpened a critical debate in Iran\u2019s domestic politics about its regional presence, they have not resulted in any policy changes. Indeed, there is a correlation between increased national power and deterrence strength in the regional balance of power.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Iran\u2019s defensive deterrence is based on two foundations.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n First, relying on \u201cmassive missile fire\u201d to respond to attacks by hostile states and targeting their military bases in the region that could be used to hit Iran. In this respect, the extension of economic sanctions has not limited Iran\u2019s missile program as the main source of the country\u2019s deterrence. In fact, sanctions make national missile production more attractive from an economic standpoint than buying foreign advanced fighter jets. Missiles are fast, precise and hit their targets effectively. Their mobility makes them less vulnerable to air defenses. Accordingly, an advanced missile strategy is institutionalized in Iran\u2019s defense policy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Second, Iran relies on its strategic depth through benefiting from territorial connectivity with the region and local networks with friendly political forces. Iran uses financial and military support as well cultural-societal commonalities to strengthen regional partners, consolidate their status and institutionalize their political positions at the local and national levels. Iran\u2019s logic of supporting an \u201caxis of resistance\u201d is based on strengthening Iranian deterrence power through this territorial attachment. Despite\u2014and in some ways because of\u2014the efforts made by rival states, Iran cannot afford to retreat from its current regional positions and partnerships.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n In this regard, the IRGC is the main force responsible for confronting national security threats to the \u201cstate\u201d of Iran. This massive force, experienced in symmetric and asymmetric conflicts, is in charge of tackling challenges from across Iran\u2019s fragile borders in Kurdistan and Sistan and Baluchistan provinces, the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz. The force is also responsible for securing and preempting any possible emergence of anti-Iran political-security trends and forces in the region.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Interestingly, there is a critical debate in Iran about whether the IRGC\u2019s role in defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria will ultimately be detrimental to Iran\u2019s national security. Because it reduced the direct dangers to hostile states such as Israel and the US, Iran may have inadvertently made it easier for them to use their forces to attack Iran. On the other hand, the IRGC\u2019s offensive strategy in dealing with anti-Iran forces is the natural duty of the force to preserve Tehran\u2019s geopolitical interests and thus based on Iran\u2019s long-term strategic calculus.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n The IRGC\u2019s prompt decision to confront ISIS in 2014 prevented the fall of Baghdad and Erbil, which would have toppled governments friendly to Iran and handed Iraq over to the terrorist forces. This power vacuum condition would have resulted in a \u201cfailed state\u201d situation, as was the case in Afghanistan during the Taliban era, that undoubtedly could have opened a new front-line and a potential space for hostile states to put pressure on Iran. Beyond preserving national interests, the IRGC strategy shows Iran\u2019s determination to confront terrorist groups that are a direct danger to global security. As Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has tweeted, \u201cISIS would have held two Arab capitals and fielded a terrorist army on Europe\u2019s doorstep, had IRGC not fought alongside brave peoples of Iraq and Syria.\u201d<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Trump\u2019s withdrawal from the JCPOA and imposing maximum sanctions on Iran that has now gained a new dimension by designating the IRGC as a terrorist group\u2014together with Europe\u2019s inability to effectively confront this policy\u2014has brought massive frustration to Iranians who fear that the West\u2019s and its regional allies\u2019 fundamental goal is to weaken Iran\u2019s national power from the inside.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n This development is a turning point in changing the perspective of Iran\u2019s public and intellectual circles towards the significance of national security issues and the necessity of enhancing the country\u2019s deterrence strength, consequently legitimizing Iran\u2019s regional policies and missile program. At present, any possibility of talks or negotiations on Iran\u2019s missile program is considered a red line to national security and an element of weakening the power of the \u201cstate\u201d of Iran.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n The White House action has also led to more solidarity within Iran\u2019s political spectrum, whether reformists or conservatives. In a symbolic move, members of Iran\u2019s majority moderate parliament turned out in the dark green uniforms of the IRGC the day after the US designation in a sign of comprehensive support. This wave has been increasing and extends to the media, university students, intellectual circles, and even some opposition forces abroad. The logic of this support is clear: The IRGC is being perceived as the main custodian of Iran\u2019s national security.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Indisputably, designating the IRGC as a terrorist group will impose further economic hardships on the Iranian people in terms of depressing oil exports, devaluing the currency, and frightening away foreign companies and investment. Yet this simultaneously leads Iranians to the conclusion that resistance against US policy will secure their country from a bigger ongoing security threat of internal destabilization and even dismemberment. In effect, the US policy has narrowed the scope for debate within Iran and forced all factions to focus on the state\u2019s survival.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Atlantic Council The recent White House designation of Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist group is the latest extension of the Trump administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d policy toward Iran. Yet this policy, aimed at containing Iran\u2019s regional role and limiting its advanced missile program, has backfired, strengthening the status of the IRGC in Iranian […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27223,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_audio_file":"","_duration_audio_file":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-united-states-of-america"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27212"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28339,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27212\/revisions\/28339"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27212"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27212"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/eurica.ir\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
15 April 2019<\/strong><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"