A webinar titled
“Examining Developments in Venezuela Following the Increase in U.S. Military Activities in the Region (Second Session)”
On Tuesday, September 22, 2025, an online session entitled “Examining the Developments in Venezuela following the Escalating Military Activity of the United States in the Caribbean Sea” was held at the Iranian Institute for European and American Studies (Iran–Eurica), with the participation of Dr. Sergio Rodríguez Gelfenstein, professor at the Venezuelan Army University, former diplomat, and international analyst. A summary of his remarks in this session is presented below:
Dr. Rodríguez argued that the ongoing security developments in the Caribbean Sea should be understood through two principal dimensions an international factor and a domestic U.S. factor.
International Factor
According to Dr. Rodríguez, the situation in the Caribbean Sea is connected to a broader transformation underway in the international system, one that is gradually moving away from the post–World War II structures that have shaped global governance for the past eight decades. He described this system, established after WWII, as one built around the United Nations and influenced disproportionately by the five permanent members of the Security Council, which he characterized as an undemocratic configuration that limits meaningful participation of the more than 190 other member states. In his view, this system appears to be evolving toward a different global outlook in which the long-standing leadership role of the West and particularly the United States is weakening. He suggested that while U.S. power is experiencing a notable decline, both global and regional actors are increasingly asserting themselves and articulating a vision for a more equitable and inclusive international order.
Dr. Rodríguez believes that the United States has been experiencing a structural economic crisis since the 1980s, including what he considers an unsustainable foreign debt. In his assessment, no sanctions or policy measures adopted by former President Trump could resolve these deeper economic constraints. He argued that this structural challenge has eroded Washington’s capacity to maintain dominance in scientific, technological, economic, trade, and cooperative spheres. Although the United States continues to possess significant military capabilities, he asserted that these too are experiencing gradual decline. He added that while the global role of the dollar remains an important U.S. asset, its influence is diminishing as more states conduct trade in alternative currencies.
A key element that Dr. Rodríguez emphasized is what he describes as the United States’ extensive cultural and media influence, which he views as shaping global narratives and affecting public perceptions. According to him, this communication apparatus provides Washington with a decisive advantage, enabling it to frame international developments in ways that reinforce its strategic preferences.
Within this framework, he argued that Latin America and the Caribbean have become particularly vulnerable to the consequences of U.S. strategic anxieties. Regarding Venezuela specifically, Dr. Rodríguez stated that the United States maintains a strong interest in the country for two primary reasons. The first, according to him, is Venezuela’s substantial natural resource base, including the world’s largest oil reserves, the fifth-largest gas reserves, significant deposits of diamonds and gold, and the second-largest reserves of coltan, alongside considerable freshwater resources. He stated that these elements represent forms of strategic energy, and that Venezuela possesses the necessary conditions to become one of the world’s major food producers.
The second reason, which he described as less material but historically significant, is Venezuela’s long-standing political influence in Latin America. He argued that many of the movements that shaped regional liberation struggles originated in Venezuela, which has contributed to its symbolic role in regional political imagination. In his assessment, U.S. policymakers are concerned that the political resilience demonstrated by Venezuela could influence broader regional dynamics, particularly at a time when Washington is prioritizing its strategic competition with China and may prefer to stabilize other geopolitical arenas before confronting that challenge.
Domestic Factor
Dr. Rodríguez also highlighted what he considers deep domestic challenges within the United States, including the absence of political leadership renewal. He pointed to the advanced age of recent presidential candidates as evidence of stagnation within the political system. In his view, this environment contributed to the rise of Donald Trump, a political outsider with a business background, as an attempt to address the country’s internal difficulties. He argued that the United States is facing significant internal social tensions that have strained the functioning of its political institutions. He further claimed that manifestations of domestic violence and social fragmentation have intensified.
In discussing current U.S. policymaking, Dr. Rodríguez asserted that traditional notions of Democratic and Republican administrations are no longer applicable in the same way. He argued that the Trump administration operates with its own internal logic that departs from previous models of governance, reducing overall policy coherence within the U.S. system.
As an illustration, he pointed to what he described as contradictory U.S. policy approaches toward Venezuela. On one hand, he noted ongoing negotiations between Caracas and Richard Grenell, President Trump’s special envoy, concerning issues such as deportees, the sale of Venezuelan oil, and U.S. citizens imprisoned in Venezuela. On the other hand, he argued that neoconservative actors, whom he associated with Senator Marco Rubio, are pursuing initiatives aimed at generating political instability and pressuring the Venezuelan government.
Dr. Rodríguez referred to a third factor that he believes influences developments: the personal leadership style of President Trump. He characterized Trump’s approach to decision-making as shaped by his background and business-oriented worldview, which he argued places emphasis on assertiveness and the use of leverage whether economic or coercive to achieve desired outcomes.
Conclusion
Dr. Rodríguez concluded by arguing that unless internal political challenges in the United States are addressed, instability in Venezuela and the broader region is likely to continue. He stated that an increase in U.S. military deployments such as submarines or additional personnel would not, in his view, change the political reality in Caracas. He suggested that even scenarios involving more forceful actions would likely trigger long-term resistance within Venezuela and potentially prompt wider mobilization across Latin America, as regional societies might react strongly to external intervention.
