The current international system is a transitional one, which is not established nor institutionalized yet and whose nature is oscillatory, flexible, fluctuant, volatile, uncertain, ambiguous and complex.
The characteristics of this system are as follows: the plurality of actors (State and Non-State actors) in a manner that the terrorist groups, taking benefit of cyber space and network power, can compete with the governments; the emergence of new actors and the non-monopole for the States to exert their hard power due to the dispersion of power; the displacement of power in international system and the rising role of emerging regional powers; the plurality of crises such as ethnic, religious, and political one; the intensification of religious and sub- national identities due to the erosion of national sovereignties; the possibility of change in the ranking of actors based upon their error of calculation or their strategic smartness; the probability of the change or the collapse of some political systems or the disintegration of some countries due to their incompetence to manage the internal crises or the increased vague of instability within the semi-sovereignties or the failed States; the clutter of political and security order and the emergence of several instabilities in divers regions of the Globe; the complexity of crises particularly those related to terrorism taking into account the possibility of armament race in order to increase their deterrence potentiality; the increase of asymmetric capabilities and the intensification of low- intensive and long-term wars due to the longevity of the transitional period; the increase in the role of regions as new actors in international system; the change in the strategic weight of some geographical regions such as Middle East and the East Asia; the rivalry of norms, values and cultures in a fragmented environment of discourse; the importance of horizontal power rather than vertical one; the importance of utilizing soft, persuasive, discursive and civilizational power by the States in order to play their role in the ideational system ; the substitution of dimensionality to polarity in international relations due to the transformation in the sources of power as well as in the aspects of power notably cultural, ideational, normative, discursive and persuasive power in a multi-layered system; and finally the entrance of the emerging regional powers into new games of temporary flexible, diversified, sectional, and case-oriented coalitions with global powers the nature of coalitions in order to hinder the formation of regional and international threats.
In this complex international system, which is in the process of formation and transformation, the formation of a kind of regional disorder that would increase the security agenda of great powers in the regional environment compel the countries of the shutter belt regions to request the help of extra-regional powers for solving their complex crises. However, the regional States taking part in the coalitions would have the fear that they would be exploited for the purposes and targets around which there are not enough consensus because in a situation of uncertainty the vulnerable states that are neighboring the emerging powers are anxious about their survival and regard themselves as more vulnerable than before. Therefore, the motivation for cooperation between the States decreases in a transitional system. This is why they tend to have a real understanding of their own relative advantages and vulnerabilities and a comprehensive perception of the fears and the values of other actors in the age of uncertainty. Considering the transformative nature of power and the preeminence of smart power, it is necessary for each actor to have a precise estimation of its potentialities as well as a real understanding of its strategic international and regional environment and a precise calculation of costs and benefits.
In this polycentric conjuncture, the international fluid flows are determining the function of international system, especially the process of consensus building and norm setting in international relations. The States tend to take synthetic decisions collectively. Therefore, there exists the possibility of convergence of multilateralism with collective approach of the concert of powers.
It seems that the new international order would be process-oriented where the behavior of actors would depend on the matrix of time and space. The reduction of economic dependency of other actors on the US economy and the shift of power from US hegemony to the rising power of other emerging governmental and non-governmental actors demonstrates that a new international order is in process of formation in which the poly-centrism will prevail and the role of regional powers will be increased.
In this conjuncture, it seems that the place of European Union is weakening in the process of international decision making especially after Brexit. The EU is encountering the budgetary problems of a number of its members such as Italy, Spain and Greece, which can lead to the asymmetric chocks within this institution and finally to its fragmentation. Furthermore, due to the dislocation of regions in the international order in transition, the importance of EU is being reduced, taking into account its reservation in some international crises such as Syria. Therefore, it is not surprising that, in future, other regions such as the Middle East or the East Asia would rise as new actors in the international system.
Dr. Mohammad Reza Dehshiri
