In collaboration with the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna, the Iranian Institute for European and American Studies (Iran-Eurica) published the outlook for global affairs in 2022. Considering various pressing issues including Great Power rivalries, Russia-Ukraine tensions, the conflicts and terrorism-related incidents in the Middle East, nuclear non-proliferation, and the impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic, the Outlook provided a blueprint for what was expected (and perhaps yet it is) to happen in the coming months of the year 2022.
In spite of the efforts at resolving some of the past year’s major global challenges, namely the pandemic of Covid-19 variants and conflict spillovers across many regions, many problems still need to be addressed. The following are some key issues to watch in 2022:
I. Continued Effects of Covid-19 Pandemic:
The strains on food supplies due to the pandemic and climate change, interruptions in supply chains and inflation remain some of the perplexing issues globally. Moreover, the Coronavirus outbreak over the past two years not only has had far-reaching consequences on world economy, but it has also affected certain foreign policies, e.g. the US attempt to contain China.
II. Strategic Challenges for US and Europe:
The current political dynamism between the United States and Russia, focusing on the developments in Ukraine and the need to design a new architecture for European security, does not reflect the prospect of an immediate exit from the current stalemate. In the meantime, the change of government in Germany and the forthcoming French presidential election can impact Europe’s pursuit of strategic autonomy.
Europe currently faces strategic challenges in three geopolitical areas this year: first and foremost, there is the issue of Russia’s ambitions in Eastern Europe, including Russia’s support for minorities in Eastern European countries and its backing of right-wing groups in Europe. Being in the neighborhood of the Middle East, Europe is also exposed to the spillover effects of regional security concerns, especially the migration crisis.
In addition, Europe needs to cooperate with the US policy of containing China, particularly with regard to the Indo-Pacific region. This is mainly because the security divergence between the United States and Europe is projected to intensify in 2022. While the US is trying to accelerate the containment of China in the Indo-Pacific, Europe’s priority is maintaining a security and economic order and preventing the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East.
III. Middle East Flashpoints and Potentials for Cooperation:
Due to the continuing rivalry between the US and China, it can be expected that regional convergence trends in the East Asia will be further strengthened. Furthermore, although the Indo-Pacific region has become the intersection of multiple powers’ interests, the Middle East will probably still be exploited as a means to counterbalance the Western pressures on Russia and China, particularly in the security and economic spheres.
In the Persian Gulf, the initial obsession with the Abraham accords is fading away, specifically due to the uncertainties regarding Saudi enthusiasm and intentions on joining the accords. On the other hand, as the Vienna talks over the JCPOA proceed, the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is reaching out for dialogue with Tehran.
The Vienna talks on Iran’s nuclear program will indeed play a vital role on any future prospects of a regional stabilization. Some progress on the original JCPOA or an interim deal appear to be close, since the breakdown of the talks would have dire consequences and ominous outcomes for all parties, perhaps with the exception of one or two regional players.
These developments and prospects indicate the necessity of forming regional coalitions that would involve interests and threats common among internal and external state actors, such as countering terrorism, drug trafficking and refugee crisis, esp. after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, as well as combating climate change and finding solutions for sustainable development. Assisting Iran in the field of renewable energies and establishing a joint energy consortium with the participation of Iran and Saudi Arabia can be a step in this direction.
Heinz Gärtner
Professor at the University of Vienna and Chair of the IIP Advisory Board
President Biden’s opinion polls are not favourable. The Republicans and the hawks in his own Democratic Party are requesting an offensive foreign policy. To gain the support of conservative votes at the elections to the Congress in November 2022, Joseph Biden will take a tough route in international affairs. China should not be allowed to catch up with the US, neither economically nor militarily. To prevent this, global alliances will be established. They will be underpinned with idealist legitimacy, like democracy. His idea of an “Alliances of Democracies” against autocracies is a case in point. He will not hesitate to ally with authoritarian states, if it serves the geopolitical interests of the US, however. NATO and Ukraine will be armed to be prepared for an assumed Russian attack. President Biden will not get new treaties through the Congress. He will rather impose sanctions. He will try to come to the multilateral nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA) against strong domestic resistance. He knows that the failure to do so, might lead to war in the Middle East, in which he does not want to become entangled.
This offensive strategy did not help President Jimmy Carter. After the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan 1979, he suspended the détente policy, and began a massive arms build-up. In his Doctrine he threatened with intervention if a foreign power intervenes in the Middle East. Against the Soviet Union and China, he started a human rights campaign. He tried (without success) to liberate the hostages in Iran with a military action. In spite of this hardline foreign policy, Jimmy Carter lost the elections against Ronald Reagan in 1980. A very aggressive foreign policy followed. This analogy might tell us what the world can expect for 2022 and the following years.
Hannes Swoboda
President of the International Institute for Peace and former MEP
2022 will see another stage in the fight between authoritarian and democratic nations, governments and movements, especially inside Europe. Recent elections have shown, that at least in basically democratic systems, populist and authoritarian leaders can be outvoted. But the biggest test will come in Hungary, Serbia and in Bosnia-Hercegovina.
Worldwide, kleptocratic and narcotic regimes will continue to play a big role. Kryptocurrencies support their activities in the global shadow economy. These forces will also try to proceed with their influence inside Europe! Europe will unfortunately be characterized by continuing tensions concerning Ukraine and by a failure to agree on a long term security architecture where US and Russia would have a positive role to play. Neither the US nor Russia will contribute to a viable security architecture in Europe as a whole.
Concerning the European neighbourhood in the Middle East, Turkey will continue to arrange itself with its neighbors, maybe even with Armenia. But there will be nor progress concerning the Cyprus issue. Unfortunately Israel‘s new government does neither design nor implement a new policy, especially in relations to the Palestinians. In Lebanon there will be no breakthrough by domestic political forces towards fighting the failed state. Syria will be more and more a Narco-State. There are chances to renew the JCPOA with Iran and in this case the relations to Arab countries will improve. The United Emirates will play an increasing regional role!
Overall, Europe and it‘s neighbourhood will be affected by several conflicts and tensions. In spite of Commission President Van der Leyen‘s call for more geopolitics, the EU will be mostly concerned with “domestic” issues, including its climate strategy and not being able to come forward with stronger and viable proposals about its geopolitical role! The biggest failure will be a lack of ideas for a comprehensive European security architecture!
Stephanie Fenkart
Director of the International Institute for Peace
The focus of the year 2022, at least for the first half of the year, will still be on combatting the Covid-19 pandemic and its socio-economic consequences for economies and health systems as well as for people all over the world. However, one of the major issues also discussed in 2021 is the evident climate crisis, which somehow has lost public attention due to the ongoing challenges in relation with the pandemic. Whereas, especially in the German speaking countries of the European Union, mistrust towards science and scientists could be observed in relation to the discussion about anti-Covid measures or compulsory vaccines, the general situation, security-wise, did also deteriorate in the year 2021. With the build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border and the consequent fear of Ukraine of an additional violent escalation, the recent events in Kazakhstan, the dangerous political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Ethiopia and a general perception of a renewed Cold War between the US and China, the world does not seem to have become more secure. Since the climate crisis is the one issue, which concerns every country in the world, it bares some potential of cooperation. Acknowledging that global goals only can be reached if every side also want them to be met, it is essential to understand that every individual person, every state, and every company will need to dispense of several conveniences in order to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing climate crisis. If this conviction prevails, there is hope for dialogue also on other relevant issues.
